The Argument
- What: Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research released its latest State of the State Survey on Monday, October 26, eight days before the November 3 election. It shows two very different races on the same Jackson County ballot. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
- Governor: Democrat Jocelyn Benson, the current secretary of state from Detroit, leads Republican U.S. Rep. John James of Shelby Township 53.3% to 40.9% among likely voters, with 5.9% undecided. Benson led by 9 points in the same survey in August, so her lead has grown. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
- Senate: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County and Detroit health director from Ann Arbor, leads Republican former congressman Mike Rogers 47.7% to 44.2% among likely voters, with 8.2% undecided. That 3.5-point gap is inside the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. His August lead in this survey was 5.5 points, so this race has tightened. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
- Method, so you can judge it yourself: Data analytics firm YouGov interviewed 1,000 randomly chosen Michigan adults between October 2 and 19. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 points for the likely voter group of 836 respondents. In the RealClearPolling average of polls, Benson leads James by 6.3 points and El-Sayed leads Rogers by 1.9 points. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
Why the two races are splitting
“The gap between the governor and Senate races has grown, with centrist voters more likely to support Benson than El-Sayed,” said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State. The survey showed Benson outperforming El-Sayed among independents, Wayne County residents, Black voters, Catholics and voters describing themselves as moderates. El-Sayed outperformed Benson among voters under the age of 30. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
The Institute also said Islamophobia is considered to be a factor in the Senate race, with about 38% of voters saying they were less likely to support a Muslim candidate. Meanwhile, 52% of voters said they were less likely to support a candidate endorsed by Republican President Donald Trump. Both numbers are the survey’s own findings, reported here as findings, not as verdicts on any individual voter. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
The same day: Sanders in Alpena
While the poll landed, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders campaigned Monday in Alpena for El-Sayed, drawing roughly 700 people in a county President Trump won by nearly 29 percentage points two years ago. Organizers had to bring in additional chairs and remove a room divider. Sanders touted El-Sayed, criticized Trump, and spoke on income inequality and America’s health care system during a roughly hour-long talk. (FACT: Bridge Michigan via WCMU, Oct. 26, 2026.)
The strategy, as Bridge Michigan reported it, is not to flip northern Michigan but to narrow the margin, in statewide races often decided by 100,000 votes or less. Rogers is running the mirror-image play, working to narrow margins with traditional Democratic constituencies, including a concerted effort to court Jewish voters and Detroiters who backed El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Haley Stevens. Michigan Republican Party senior communications adviser Greg Manz responded to Sanders’ visit by arguing the progressive policies Sanders and El-Sayed support are direct threats to Michiganders’ livelihoods. (FACT: Bridge Michigan via WCMU, Oct. 26, 2026.)
Sanders’ Michigan swing also included planned stops in Grand Rapids and Ann Arbor, and came after he and other members of Congress committed more than $1.3 million to El-Sayed’s campaign in the final days. “Abdul is taking on everybody,” Sanders told Bridge. (FACT: Bridge Michigan via WCMU, Oct. 26, 2026.)
(COMMENTARY: Read the two races differently, because the data says they are different. The governor’s race, in this survey and in the polling average, is Benson’s to lose. The Senate race is a genuine coin flip: a 3.5-point lead inside a 4.4-point margin of error, a polling-average lead down to 1.9 points, and 8.2% still undecided. That is why both parties are spending their final week in places they do not own, Alpena for Sanders, Detroit constituencies for Rogers. Jackson County’s undecided voters are not a footnote in this race. Arithmetically, they are close to the whole story.)
FAQs
Who leads Michigan’s governor and Senate races in the new MSU survey?
Governor: Jocelyn Benson 53.3%, John James 40.9%, 5.9% undecided. Senate: Abdul El-Sayed 47.7%, Mike Rogers 44.2%, 8.2% undecided, among likely voters. (FACT: MSU State of the State Survey via Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
Is the Senate lead statistically solid?
No. The 3.5-point gap is inside the survey’s plus or minus 4.4-point margin of error for likely voters. The survey interviewed 1,000 Michigan adults October 2 to 19, with 836 likely voters. (FACT: Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026.)
Why was Bernie Sanders in Alpena?
To campaign for El-Sayed in heavily Republican northern Michigan, drawing roughly 700 people. The reported goal is narrowing the GOP margin there, not flipping the county, in a statewide race that could be decided by 100,000 votes or less. (FACT: Bridge Michigan via WCMU, Oct. 26, 2026.)
When is Election Day and how long does early voting run in Jackson County?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Statewide early in-person voting runs through Sunday, November 1 at assigned sites.
Source links
- MSU survey: Benson opens big lead, El-Sayed narrowly ahead of Rogers (Detroit Free Press, Oct. 26, 2026): https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/10/26/benson-leads-james-el-sayed-has-small-edge-on-rogers-in-new-survey/92448769007/
- Bernie Sanders in Michigan MAGA-land: Dems, GOP seek votes in unfamiliar areas (Bridge Michigan via WCMU, Oct. 26, 2026): https://www.wcmu.org/local-regional-news/2026-10-26/bernie-sanders-in-michigan-maga-land-dems-gop-seek-votes-in-unfamiliar-areas
AI-generated header image: the header image for this article is an AI-generated illustration, not a photograph.
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